How games trick you with a simple math?

Smart Project

I’m Anton Zaluskyi, founder of Smart Project a mobile game development company. The most popular our game is 5 Differences Online. I enjoy delving into data, discovering unique insights, rethinking concepts, and implementing solutions. I play various games to understand what motivates players to spend money and why. I have an idea to share some of my thoughts regarding deconstructing games and conducting A/B tests on new features in our games. Small posts, short and to the point, no long-reads.

In the first post you can see my thoughts as a fan of Coin Master game. These are my personal thoughts, not based on scientific research. So, you are still here, then let’s see an example how the Coin Master’s event Castle of Fortune tricks your brain using a simple math trick.

Castle of Fortune event it’s a 20 steps event in each of them you need to choose one of four barrels. In three of barrels you will have a valued prize and a Dragon in one. Each 5th step you have all four golden barrels, so in each of them are valued prize. Finding a Dragon means that the Dragon catches you and you need pay to play on. So, it looks like your chances to get a prize are high – 75% on most of all levels and 100% on each 5th level.
But let’s check the next table and dive closer.

What we can find here?
The probability of win on each stage are high 75%-100%, depends on a stage type. It’s so easy to feel by player. It’s so intuitive that you have a very high probability of win when you are choosing one barrel of four and three of them with the prize. But the cumulative win probability decreases so quickly. The player can’t intuitively feel that chances of win are 10% on the 9th stage and only 1% on the last one.

On the other hand, players experience pressure as the prizes increase with each stage, compelling them to take risks and progress.

Yep, you can stop at any time and get earned prizes, but is it easy to stop when you have earned so many for the first almost lose-free steps and feel how easy it was?

So, what do you think? Tell me in the comments.

I promise to share much more with you if you like it.

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